Saturday, January 19, 2008

Everything you wanted to know about the recession but were afraid to ask

I always knew it would be George Bush's Gentleman's-C-student, always-failing-updwards business "skills" that would really do us in:
It’s been a terrible opening for the markets in 2008. While the new year is supposed to bring hope of god things to come, the markets have instead dropped like stones. Citigroup and Merrill Lynch announced massive writedowns in their respective portfolios, everyone from Congress to the Fed is talking about some type of stimulus plan and there is hope for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Finally, there is more and more talk about a recession – which is defined as two quarters of negative economic growth. So, the question on everybody’s lips is what the hell is happening? Are we in a recession? Why are the markets tanking so hard?

....lots of charts and links and graphs......

So, the basic overall economy situation is not good.

-- The employment report indicates that employment growth is slowing. This indicates businesses are not confident about the future.
-- Christmas sales were OK, but not great.
-- The consumer is hemmed in by rising oil and food prices
-- The Federal Reserve is hemmed in by high gas and food prices.
-- The financial sector is still dealing with the fallout of the sub-prime mortgage mess and probably will be for the foreseeable future.

In short, things do not look good right now.

And yesterday on McLaughlin Group Mort Zuckerman said:

  • Unemployment will hit 6.5% to 7% this year.
  • This will be the worst recession since the Great Depression.
  • Housing and money markets will continue to implode.
Hang on to your hats, your wallets are probably beyond hope...............

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